Fresno Metro Minute: October 2025

Sellers Gain Edge as Prices Climb Steadily

Months of Inventory

Months of inventory in October dipped to 4.3 from 4.8 in September and is slightly below October 2024. That’s a modest move back toward sellers after nine straight months where 2025 inventory ran well above last year.

Even so, we’re still sitting far below the historic October average near 13 months, which means this is not a “soft” market by long-term standards.

For sellers, the takeaway is: don’t expect the leverage of a pandemic-era frenzy, but conditions improved slightly this month. Buyers are seeing a bit less choice than in late summer, but far more than in past boom years.

Supply

Demand

Supply is easing but still elevated. Active listings fell from 497 in September to 473 in October, and are now slightly below last year but still far above the historic October average. That shift tilts a bit of leverage back toward sellers compared with last month, but not enough to create a tight market.

Demand softened more noticeably. Pending sales dropped from 116 in September to 92 in October and are well below last year and their historic norm.

Net effect: buyers gain negotiation power on price and terms, while sellers need sharper pricing and patience.

Appreciation

Appreciation has clearly turned the corner. After 2023’s slight price declines, 2024 settled into a modest 2–3% annual gain. 2025 has quietly accelerated from the low 2% range early in the year to nearly 5% by October, with the median price climbing from about $410K in late 2024 to just over $430K now.

Month over month, prices and appreciation both ticked up again from September to October, reinforcing a slow-but-steady uptrend.

In practice: sellers have a bit more pricing power; buyers face rising prices but not the breakneck spikes of 2020–2022.

For buyers, prices are clearly higher than last year, but you have more leverage than it first appears. Homes are selling faster and appreciation has nearly doubled, yet buyers are now negotiating an average 3% off asking. Fewer new listings and steady inventory mean you should move quickly on good homes, but write offers with clear terms and realistic discounts instead of chasing the top of the range.

For sellers, this is a stronger pricing and momentum window. Sales volume, prices, and appreciation are all up, and days on market are down about 15%. However, the jump in expired and withdrawn listings shows overpricing is punished. Price close to market, expect some negotiation off list, and focus on being the best-positioned home in your price band.

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