Salinas Metro Minute: October 2025

Inventory Tightens, Sellers Regain Edge

Months of Inventory

Months of Inventory dipped to 3.55 in October, down sharply from 4.49 in September and well below the long‑term October average of about 5.47.

This is the lowest level since January and an 11% drop from last October, signaling a tighter, more competitive market than both last month and most historical Octobers.

Practically, sellers gain leverage again: well‑priced homes should see faster activity and firmer pricing. Buyers still have more options than in the pre‑2020 frenzy, but the brief window of softer conditions we saw in late summer is narrowing as inventory tightens into fall.

Supply

Demand

Supply pulled back sharply this month: active listings fell from 767 in September to 652 in October 2025 and are now below last year (-7.7%), though still well above the historic October average. That’s the first meaningful cooling in a year-long supply build.

Demand, however, held firm. Pending sales were flat at 210 from last month, up 5.5% year over year and almost double the historic norm.

Net result: fewer options but steady buyers. This tilts slightly back toward sellers on selection and negotiation, while committed buyers face less competition than in past boom years.

Appreciation

Appreciation has clearly downshifted from 2024’s rebound phase into a flat-to-cooling 2025. Year-over-year gains that were running 6–10% in late 2024 have slipped to roughly flat, even slightly negative, through much of 2025, before ticking back up to 1.66% in October.

Month-to-month, October shows a modest price lift from September (about $16K), reversing two months of slippage. That suggests more of a price plateau than a new surge.

Practically, this is a more balanced market: sellers can’t count on rapid appreciation, while buyers get a bit more leverage but shouldn’t expect big discounts.

For buyers: Prices are clearly higher than a year ago, but you’re gaining leverage in how you negotiate. Days on market are up on average, inventory is still under 4 months, and more listings are expiring or getting withdrawn. Sellers are often cutting from their original list price and then discounting again to close, so focus on homes that have been sitting and don’t be shy about asking for concessions.

For sellers: Demand is real—sales volume is up over 20% and both median and average prices are sharply higher year over year. But buyers are value‑sensitive. Overpricing is leading to bigger gaps between list and sold prices and more failed listings. Price close to the market from day one and expect serious, but firm, negotiation.

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