San Diego Metro Minute: October 2025

Cooling Prices, Rising Leverage for Buyers

Months of Inventory

Months of Inventory slipped from 5.01 in September to 4.76 in October, keeping us in a mildly seller-leaning but not overheated market. That month‑to‑month decline means buyers are seeing slightly less choice and a bit more competition.

Compared with 2024, inventory is still higher almost every month in 2025, but the gap is narrowing by fall. October is only about 6% above last year.

Historically, though, inventory remains extremely low versus long‑term norms. This continues to favor sellers on pricing power, while giving buyers a better shot at avoiding bidding wars than in the peak pandemic years.

Supply

Demand

Supply is still elevated but easing. Active listings dipped from 10,518 in September to 9,991 in October, yet remain about 67% above the historic October average. That shift slightly reduces, but doesn’t erase, buyers’ leverage.

Demand is steady at a high level. October pendings held flat from September at 2,131, roughly double the historic norm and 4% above last year.

Big picture: 2025 has run with far more supply and far more demand than history. This month tilts a bit back toward balance, but conditions still favor patient, selective buyers over sellers.

Appreciation

Appreciation has clearly downshifted in 2025. We started the year near 6% annual price growth and have slid steadily to about 1% by October, with the median price drifting down from its mid‑2025 peak. Month to month, prices have inched lower since August, signaling a gentle cooling rather than a crash.

Compared with 2024’s 6–9% appreciation range, today’s market is much calmer. Sellers face more price-sensitive buyers and need to compete on condition and pricing. Buyers now have more leverage and a bit more time, but shouldn’t expect big discounts—this is a soft landing, not a reset.

For buyers: You’re getting more leverage than last year. Inventory is up, days on market are 40–60% longer, and the median price and median price per square foot are slightly down. Sellers are discounting more from both original and asking price, and appreciation has cooled sharply. This is a good window to negotiate, especially on homes that have been sitting.

For sellers: The market is still moving, with total sales and pending contracts both slightly higher and overall sales volume up strongly. But buyers are price-sensitive and have more options. To sell well, you’ll need sharp pricing, strong presentation, and realistic expectations on negotiations.

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