San Jose Metro Minute: October 2025

A High-Plateau Market: Edge to Smart Sellers

Months of Inventory

Months of Inventory ticked down from 2.08 in September to 1.75 in October, keeping the market firmly in seller’s territory. That’s also slightly below last October and still far under the historic October average above 3 months.

The big 2025 story remains: inventory ran higher than 2024 for most of the year, giving buyers more choice, but tightened again this fall.

For sellers, this means well‑priced homes should move quickly. For buyers, any breather we saw mid‑year is fading; expect less negotiating power and move fast on good listings.

Supply

Demand

Supply is still elevated, but the story is shifting. Active listings dropped from 2,134 in September to 1,827 in October, yet remain about 45% above the historic October average. That means more choices than normal, but less than buyers saw this summer.

Demand softened meaningfully. Pending sales slipped from 1,018 in September to 1,035 in October, but they’re down 11% from last year and only slightly above historic norms.

Net result: the market is tilting a bit back toward buyers, but not crashing—motivated, well‑priced sellers still get deals done, while buyers can negotiate more confidently.

Appreciation

Appreciation is clearly decelerating. We’ve moved from roughly 9–10% annual price growth in early 2024 to just 2.57% today, even as the median price has climbed from about $1.45M to just over $1.60M. Month-to-month, prices are now basically flat, edging down slightly from September to October.

Compared with the boom years (2016–2022), today looks like a “high plateau”: prices are near record highs, but gains are modest. This favors buyers who can afford current rates and want less bidding-war risk, and it nudges sellers to price closer to the market instead of “testing the sky.”

Buyers, this is turning into a “wait, then pounce” market. Homes are sitting almost twice as long, appreciation has cooled sharply, and sellers are giving back more between asking and final sale price than last year. Even with slightly higher average prices, the drop in median price and price per square foot shows more room to negotiate, especially on homes that have been listed for a while.

Sellers, you still hold a slight edge with under two months of inventory and only a small dip in total sales. But buyers are choosier: days on market have almost doubled, price cuts are more common, and more listings are expiring or withdrawing. You need sharp pricing and polished presentation from day one.

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