Santa Maria Metro Minute: October 2025

Leverage Rises as Prices Re‑Accelerate

Months of Inventory

Months of inventory ticked down from 4.86 in September to 4.75 in October, keeping us in a balanced-but-tilting-toward-buyer market. There’s more choice than last year, but not enough to tip into a true buyer’s market.

Versus 2024, inventory is slightly higher every month of 2025, yet still far below the historic norm near 13 months. That long‑term shortage is what’s keeping prices from breaking.

For buyers, this is the most negotiating leverage you’ve had in years. For sellers, pricing close to market and being move‑in ready matters more than ever.

Supply

Demand

Supply eased from 454 to 415 active listings this month, the first meaningful pullback after a year of above-normal inventory. Even so, supply is still well above the historic October average, so buyers continue to have more options than usual.

Demand moved the other way. Pending sales rose from 90 to 96 and are now far above both last year and the historic norm. This tilt toward stronger demand and slightly lower supply shifts the balance modestly toward sellers.

Net result: still a buyer-leaning market, but negotiations are getting tighter and well-priced homes face more competition.

Appreciation

Appreciation has clearly re-accelerated. In 2024, growth mostly sat in the 3–5% range; in 2025 it dipped early in the year, then climbed steadily, jumping from about 3–4% in mid‑summer to 6.24% in October. Month to month, that’s a meaningful pickup from 5.05% in September.

Median price tells the same story: from roughly $698K last October to about $742K now, with a solid step up just in the last month. For sellers, this is a friendlier window to list. For buyers, waiting is starting to cost more again.

For buyers: Prices are up sharply year over year, but you now have more leverage. Days on market have jumped, inventory is higher, and both original and final sale prices are discounting more from list. That combination means more choices, more time, and better room to negotiate both price and repairs, even in higher price brackets.

For sellers: Demand is still real—sales volume has more than doubled and appreciation has accelerated—but buyers are pushing back. Homes are taking longer to sell, discounts are deeper, and more listings are expiring or getting withdrawn. Pricing right from day one and preparing the home well matters more than ever.

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