Stockton Metro Minute: October 2025

Buyers Gain Leverage as Pricing Power Shifts

Months of Inventory

Months of inventory edged down from 4.37 in September to 4.05 in October. That’s still well above 2024’s 3.39, but far below the historic October norm near 13–14 months.

Broadly, 2025 has shifted the market from the ultra-tight conditions of 2024 toward a more balanced, mildly buyer-leaning market. Buyers now have more choices and a bit more negotiating room than last year.

For sellers, October’s small pullback from September means listings that are well-priced and well-presented can still move without deep discounts, but “list high and wait” is no longer a winning strategy.

Supply

Demand

Supply eased for the second month in a row, dropping from 326 active listings in September to 298 in October. Even with that pullback, inventory is still almost 3x the historic October average, tilting the market toward buyers.

Demand improved month over month, with pendings rising from 87 in September to 90 in October and nearly 10% above last year. That’s strong for fall and well above historic norms.

Net result: 2025 remains a high-supply, healthy-demand market. Buyers gain leverage on selection and negotiation; sellers must price sharply and prep homes well to stand out.

Appreciation

Appreciation has clearly cooled in 2025. Most of this year has hovered near zero, with several slight negatives, compared with steady positive gains through much of 2024. October continues that pattern: appreciation dipped from +0.89% in September to -1.44% in October, even though the median price inched up from $639,759 to $640,583.

In plain terms, prices are basically flat year over year and just drifting month to month. Sellers have lost the pricing power they enjoyed from 2020–2022; buyers now have more room to negotiate, but not steep discounts.

Buyers are gaining leverage. Prices are softer year-over-year, especially on a price-per-square-foot basis, and homes are sitting on the market longer. With months of inventory up and sellers discounting more from original list to final sale, you have room to negotiate on both price and terms. This is a good moment to be patient, target homes that have been listed over 30 days, and write confident but realistic offers.

Sellers can still win, but strategy matters more. Total and pending sales are up, so buyers are active, but they’re price-sensitive. Overpricing now leads to longer days on market and bigger discounts later. The sellers doing best are the ones who price near today’s median, present their homes well, and adjust quickly if showings and offers stall.

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